This summer, calm prevailed in the financial markets. Investors showed a relative indifference to the many risk factors. Markets particularly took note of the trade agreements signed between the United States and its main trading partners, notably the EU. With few exceptions, these agreements were concluded with customs duties ranging from 15% to 20%. Although this level is considered “reasonable,” its effects on inflation and economic activity will not be neutral. For now, however, markets are mostly relieved that the prospect of trade wars has been set aside.
Economic data confirms sluggish European growth and inflation kept under control at around 2%, which is the ECB’s target. In the United States, the situation is more complex. Inflation, around 3%, remains well above the Fed’s target (2%), and tariff-related issues add upward pressure. Growth is also showing some signs of weakness, particularly in the labor market.
Should policy favor growth by lowering rates, or maintain strong monetary pressure to fight inflation? This is the dilemma facing Fed members. In September, however, they chose to cut key interest rates by 25 basis points. Here again, markets opted for an optimistic interpretation. A worsening of economic conditions would likely strengthen the Fed’s dovish stance, which is also facing increasingly intense political pressure to ease monetary policy.
Market serenity translated in the third quarter into very low volatility and rising equities. Gains were moderate in Europe, with increases of around 3–4% depending on the index. In the United States, gains were more pronounced, around 8%. The AI theme continues to provide momentum.
On the bond markets, few notable changes occurred during the period. The German 10-year yield rose slightly by 10 bps to 2.71%. U.S. yields declined modestly, with the 10-year Treasury down 8 bps to 4.15%. Gold also continued its ascent, with the ounce breaking record after record.
We remain cautious in the short term and have not increased our equity exposure. We maintain a strong commodities theme (gold, copper, and other metals through Glencore and commodities ETFs).
Transactions carried out according to management profiles:
For securities accounts and life insurance policies, we doubled our investment in gold through the purchase of the ZKB GOLD ETF, bringing the position to nearly 5%.
On the equity side, we took advantage of the strong rebound in ALPHABET following earnings releases to sell the stock, and we initiated positions in THALES and ALCON. This quarter, we also sold our MSCI WORLD and EUROSTOXX50 ETFs, which had been purchased during the April market downturn.
For PEA-PME accounts, we carried out several reallocations. At the end of the third quarter, we decided to take profits after the excellent stock market performance of THEON INTERNATIONAL and STREAMWIDE, reinvesting in EXAIL and EXOSENS.
For PEA accounts, we doubled our positions in CHRISTIAN DIOR and DEUTSCHE BOERSE for most portfolios.
Bond allocations remained broadly unchanged. The positioning remains relatively cautious, split between government bonds and private-sector debt. The annualized yield is around 3%.
Equity & Commodities Markets
| Index / Asset | Value 30/09/25 | Q3 Performance (%) | 2025 Performance (%) |
| Eurostoxx 50 (€) | 5530 | 4.3% | 12.9% |
| Cac 40 (€) | 7896 | 3.0% | 7.0% |
| S&P 500 ($) | 6688 | 7.8% | 13.7% |
| Nasdaq ($) | 24680 | 8.8% | 17.5% |
| Gold (ounce, $) | 3859 | 16.8% | 47.0% |
| Brent Oil ($) | 67.02 | -10.3% | -10.2% |
Key Indicators
| Indicator | Value 30/09/25 | Quarterly Change (Abs) | 2025 Change (Abs) |
| 10-year OAT (France) | 3.53% | +25 bp | +34 bp |
| 10-year Bund (Germany) | 2.71% | +10 bp | +34 bp |
| 10-year T-Bond (U.S.) | 4.15% | -8 bp | -42 bp |
| EUR/USD exchange rate | 1.1734 | -0.005 | +0.138 |
Draft completed on 17 October 2025
Asset Management Team